Summary
The Administration has requested appropriations of $75.5 million in FY 2002 for the Energy Information Administration (EIA), an independent agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. This request includes $8.5 million for EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) believes that EIA’s forecasting, at least as it pertains to nuclear energy, is based on flawed modeling and methodology and erroneous assumptions, and urges Congress to require, as a condition of providing the appropriations requested, independent peer review of EIA’s forecasting.
 
Need for Accurate Analysis and Forecasting
There is increasing evidence that the United States faces serious energy supply and delivery problems. Even assuming successful conservation and efficiency programs, U.S. dependence on imported oil is at a historic high. Natural gas prices across the country have increased dramatically. Several regions of the country face significant shortages of electric generating capacity. The transportation infrastructure for delivery of oil and natural gas requires significant expansion. The transmission infrastructure necessary to move electricity within and between states and regions is seriously overloaded, placing reliability at risk. 

The imminent threat to reliable supplies of energy at stable, predictable prices is leading to new interest in national energy policy.  The appropriate authorizing committees in both Senate and House are holding hearings on U.S. energy policy, and the Bush Administration intends to offer its proposals shortly. At times like these, policy-makers in the Administration and the Congress must have access to the most accurate analysis and forecasting possible. In the case of nuclear energy, the EIA’s forecasts are inaccurate, appear to be based on hypothetical speculation, and at least to date do not proceed from well-informed analysis of the current status of nuclear energy in the United States.