President (Mr Gonzalez Gomez), Ladies and Gentlemen,

Introduction
I am pleased to join this Foratom workshop.

This evening, I would like to look ahead. I would also like to take a wider view of Europe’s energy future — a future in which all energy options play a full and sustainable role in Europe’s economy; and one in which we, Europe’s consumers, have a greater understanding about the energy which we use.

To do this, I will consider the importance to Europe’s energy future of

1. diversity in our energy mix
2. durability or sustainability of our energy policies, and
3. diplomacy or the international dimension of the EU energy policy.

Diversity in the Energy Mix
Let me begin with diversity. The Green Paper “Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply ”, adopted by the European Commission in November 2000, opened up a wide and dispassionate debate on energy options in Europe.

The Green Paper addressed the real issues which need to guide the rational choices of energy policies. In this context, difficult topics have been covered, for instance our increasing dependence on energy imports, the place of nuclear, transport developments or global warming.

In practice, the European Union has limited options: very few concerning supply and more on the demand side. External energy dependency could reach 70% of our needs in 2020. As regards oil our dependence would reach nearly 90% and for gas 60%. And as to nuclear energy, unfortunately Europe also lacks natural uranium at competitive cost, but this can be overcome by the use of innovative technology.

In addition, the Union has committed itself to implement the Kyoto Protocol.

Looking first at the transport sector, which represents 32% of the energy consumption, mainly oil, and 28% of total CO2 emissions, the Commission has set a number of priorities:

• To increase energy diversity. The Commission made proposals to promote bio-fuels by fixing the ambitious target of 20% for 2020 of the total consumption of oil;
• To make the transport of goods by rail more competitive, thus increase its share as compared to road transport;
• To establish a road pricing system for heavy duties vehicles;
• To build the infrastructure needed for intermodality.

Let me turn now to the power generation sector. In order to increase the diversity in our fuel mix, difficult decisions must be made now: to invest in new technologies – carbon sequestration, innovative nuclear reactor concepts, both fission and fusion, and renewable technologies; to put new infrastructures in place; to develop the fuels of tomorrow; and to equip consumers with the information they require to make prudent energy decisions.

This being said, renewable energy offers limited potential. Unless decisive new action is taken, it now appears that the share of renewable electricity is unlikely to reach the 21% target by 2010 which the Commission set three years ago.

But there is already today an electricity production technique with effectively zero Carbondioxid emission: Nuclear energy!

The Finish decision to build a new nuclear plant shows that nuclear energy remains a very attractive economic option if it is properly managed.

For all these reasons, I believe that the nuclear option must remain open for the security of energy supply and for meeting our climate change objectives.

Durability and Sustainability of Energy Policies
This brings me on to my second theme, durability, or sustainability. Europe’s energy outlook will be permanently shaped by decisions taken today – not only by politicians and industrialists, but also by individual consumers. How durable or sustainable, are these decisions? One of the themes of my tenure as Commissioner for Energy and Transport has been the urgency to intensify efforts to reduce energy wastage and stimulate greater energy efficiency.

I have recently proposed a new energy efficiency target for the European Union – that Member States should aim at saving at least 1% more energy each year than over the last five years. Some of this would be achieved through better energy use in buildings, but the transport sector should also be a target, as well as the use of domestic appliances.

If our targets are met, this could have a substantial impact on future energy needs. Currently, it is estimated that over one fifth of Europe’s energy usage could be saved with simple, quick and cheap measures.

Looking further ahead, over the next thirty years, it is possible that new technologies and socio-economic developments will emerge which could help to reduce energy needs substantially. But as we all know, the existence of technologies or practical solutions alone is not enough to ensure that the most sustainable option will be chosen.

We all have a responsibility to encourage sustainable energy decisions: it is for politicians to send the right messages, for markets to spot the opportunities and for consumers to adapt quickly enough to take advantage of the opportunities available.

The nuclear option is part of this wider picture. A durable and sustainable energy mix includes, in my view, safe and clean nuclear power. Repeated surveys have shown that the public would be more receptive to nuclear power if they were convinced that a high level of nuclear safety was assured and that a permanent solution to the problem of management of radioactive waste could be found.

This is one of the reasons that I have given nuclear safety and management of radioactive waste such a high profile over the last two years.

The Council of Ministers is still discussing ways and means to achieve a greater coordination and harmonisation in nuclear safety and safe management and disposal of radioactive waste. I deeply regret that Member States did not seize the opportunity to adopt the two proposals for directives, known as the “Nuclear Package”.

Legislation, based under Euratom Treaty, on nuclear safety and radioactive waste management would ensure that an equivalent level of nuclear safety is kept within the enlarged European Union and would represent an important contribution to maintain the nuclear option open. Let us hope that it will be soon possible to resume the discussion to endow the European Union with legislation in the fields of nuclear safety and radioactive waste management. I believe that this would send out a strong signal that the EU takes nuclear safety seriously and has set a stringent framework to assure it.

The International Dimension of the EU Energy Policy
The priority for the European supply policy is the development of a true partnership dialogue between producer and consumer countries.

In its Green Paper of 2000 on a European strategy for energy supply, the Commission had already pointed to the importance of a permanent dialogue between producing countries and consumer countries, the oil prices being high or low.

This dialogue needs to be strengthened in the current geopolitical context and the Commission is party to this strengthening. The European Union has opened specific dialogues. The European Union’s dialogue with Russia is the best example of this approach.

After four years there are concrete results which have been achieved:

• the strategies and rules governing the organisation of markets are already starting to converge,
• EU investments in Russia have developed,
• the importance of long term contracts to satisfy supplies has been confirmed,
• projects of common interest related to energy production and transmission have been identified,
• negotiations in the field of trade in nuclear materials are about to start.

Thanks to this dialogue the European Union and Russia have created the principle that, for the EU, energy dependence is only acceptable if Russia guarantees the security and safety of its infrastructure, regular supplies and the protection of investments.

According to our forecasts the European Union will be increasingly dependant on energy from Russia. I should remind you that Russia is today Europe’s most important supplier of oil and gas and covers 20% of our consumption.

With current tensions in the Middle East, supplies from Russia will be of vital importance for long term economic growth. As for gas, our scenario shows that up to 60% of our gas consumption will be imported from Russia by 2030.

Energy markets are already truly global, and this will be more so in coming years as Europe’s domestic reserves of oil and gas dwindle, demand from developing countries increase and competition builds up for the resources available.

As well as building up our relations with Russia and the Middle East, it will be important for the EU to develop its energy relations with other key suppliers, such as Algeria and Iran – the country with the world’s second largest gas supplies – as well as transit countries, such as Turkey and the Ukraine.

But our future energy security will also depend on maintaining a close dialogue with other major energy consumers – of which the USA, China and Japan are the largest.

I have argued before that it is in the interests of all that the US and China develop energy saving policies, and the recent turbulence on oil markets confirms my earlier fears. Rising demand from these countries is playing a strong part in the current pressures on oil prices.

Within the framework of the intensification of the dialogue with the producing countries, it also must be pointed out that an observation system of markets and of the prices will be established inside the Commission departments. It is necessary to reflect on the operating methods of the market. The crisis in the oil markets shows to what extent the current system is not satisfactory.

The strengthening of the producer-consumer dialogue is important but we also need to ensure a coordinated response by all the Member States, within a framework of solidarity.

We remember that faced with this kind of crises, which have a cyclic character and are increasingly characterised by speculative manipulation, the European Union is not equipped with the means for a coordinated response by all the Member States.

The Member States think that it rests with the International Energy Agency (IEA), to act if necessary. It will be noted that this intergovernmental organisation which gathers 26 countries (such as the United States, Japan, and Korea) with less and less homogeneous interests has taken no initiative since the beginning of the current crisis.

Consequently, the question arises as to whether the Commission should reflect on a new proposal to ensure a common and interdependent approach to the problems of security of supply for oil.

Conclusion
President, Ladies and Gentlemen

The European Commission and others have developed scenarios which tell us how trends will develop, given today’s presumptions. But today’s decision makers have it within their power to transform Europe’s energy outlook into the next 30 years to become more sustainable, varied and globally effective.

The European Commission has already set the wheels in progress with measures to increase energy efficiency, manage demand for imported oil, action to boost renewable energy use and maintain the nuclear option open. But our success will be measured by the efforts which are made by Member States, Europe’s industry and individual consumers. We still have a long way to go, but I believe that we are on the right track.

Thank you, President, Ladies and Gentlemen, for your attention.