Summary
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) next week, and the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has requested testimony about EIA’s forecasting through 2025. Although EIA’s forecasting of nuclear power’s contribution to U.S. electricity supply has improved in recent years, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI)¹ believes that EIA’s outlook, particularly with respect to new nuclear plant construction, is based on erroneous assumptions.

Need for Accurate Analysis and Forecasting
There is increasing evidence that the United States faces serious energy supply and delivery problems. Even assuming successful conservation and efficiency programs, U.S. dependence on imported oil is at a historic high. Natural gas prices across the country have increased dramatically. The transportation infrastructure for delivery and natural gas requires significant expansion. The transmission infrastructure necessary to move electricity within and between states and regions is seriously overloaded, placing reliability at risk.

The imminent threat to reliable supplies of energy at stable, predictable prices is generating interest in new national energy policy legislation. The appropriate authorizing committees in both the Senate and House are holding hearings. At times like these, policymakers in the administration and the Congress must have access to the most accurate analysis and forecasting possible. In the case of nuclear energy, the EIA’s forecasts are not accurate, appear based on hypothetical speculation and do not reflect realistic analysis of the current status of nuclear energy in the United States.